1, Photovoltaic iherezo risabwa: Icyifuzo cyubushobozi bwamafoto yashizwemo kirakomeye, kandi icyifuzo cya polysilicon kirahindurwa hashingiwe kubiteganijwe byubushobozi bwashyizweho.
1.1.Ikoreshwa rya polysilicon: Isi yoseingano yo gukoresha iragenda yiyongera, cyane cyane kubyara amashanyarazi
Imyaka icumi ishize, kwisi yosepolysiliconibicuruzwa byakomeje kwiyongera, kandi umubare w’Ubushinwa wakomeje kwiyongera, uyobowe n’inganda zifotora.Kuva mu 2012 kugeza 2021, muri rusange isi ikoreshwa na polysilicon yerekanaga ko yazamutse, ikava kuri toni 237.000 ikagera kuri toni 653.000.Muri 2018, hashyizweho politiki nshya y’amafoto 531 y’Ubushinwa, yagabanije neza igipimo cy’inkunga yo kubyara amashanyarazi.Ubushobozi bushya bwa Photovoltaque bwagabanutseho 18% umwaka ushize, kandi icyifuzo cya polysilicon cyagize ingaruka.Kuva mu mwaka wa 2019, leta yashyizeho politiki nyinshi zo guteza imbere uburinganire bw’amafoto.Hamwe niterambere ryihuse ryinganda zifotora, icyifuzo cya polysilicon nacyo cyinjiye mugihe cyiterambere ryihuse.Muri iki gihe, igipimo cy’imikoreshereze ya polysilicon y’Ubushinwa mu mikoreshereze y’isi yose cyakomeje kwiyongera, kiva kuri 61.5% muri 2012 kigera kuri 93.9% muri 2021, bitewe ahanini n’Ubushinwa bwihuta cyane mu nganda zikoresha amashanyarazi.Dufatiye ku buryo isi ikoresha uburyo butandukanye bwa polysilicon mu 2021, ibikoresho bya silikoni bikoreshwa mu ngirabuzimafatizo ya Photovoltaque bizaba byibuze byibuze 94%, muri byo hakaba harimo polysilicon yo mu rwego rw'izuba hamwe na silikoni ya granular igera kuri 91% na 3%, mu gihe mu gihe ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki polysilicon ishobora gukoreshwa kuri chipi igera kuri 94%.Umubare ni 6%, byerekana ko icyifuzo cya polysilicon cyiganjemo amafoto yifotora.Biteganijwe ko hamwe n’ubushyuhe bwa politiki ya karuboni ebyiri, icyifuzo cy’ubushobozi bw’amafoto y’amashanyarazi kizarushaho gukomera, kandi ikoreshwa n’ikigereranyo cya polysilicon yo mu rwego rw’izuba bizakomeza kwiyongera.
1.2.Silicon wafer: wafer ya monocrystalline silicon wafer ifata inzira nyamukuru, kandi tekinoroji ya Czochralski ikomeza gutera imbere byihuse
Ihuriro ryibanze rya polysilicon ni wafer ya silicon, naho Ubushinwa bwiganje ku isoko rya wafer ya silicon ku isi.Kuva mu mwaka wa 2012 kugeza mu wa 2021, umusaruro wa silicon wafer ku isi no mu Bushinwa wongeyeho umusaruro n’ibisohoka byakomeje kwiyongera, kandi inganda zifotora zikomeza kwiyongera.Wafer ya Silicon ikora nk'ikiraro gihuza ibikoresho bya silikoni na batiri, kandi nta mutwaro uhari ku musaruro, bityo ukomeje gukurura ibigo byinshi byinjira mu nganda.Mu 2021, Abashinwa bakora silicon wafer bariyongereye cyaneumusaruroubushobozi ku musaruro wa 213.5GW, watumye umusaruro wa silicon wafer ku isi wiyongera kuri 215.4GW.Dukurikije ubushobozi buriho kandi bushya bwiyongereye mu Bushinwa, biteganijwe ko umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’umwaka uzakomeza 15-25% mu myaka mike iri imbere, kandi umusaruro w’ubushinwa uzakomeza kugira umwanya wiganje ku isi.
Silicon polycrystalline irashobora gukorwa mubice bya silikoni ya silikoni cyangwa inkoni ya silicon monocrystalline.Igikorwa cyo gukora polycrystalline silicon ingots ahanini ikubiyemo uburyo bwo gutara hamwe nuburyo bwo gushonga butaziguye.Kugeza ubu, ubwoko bwa kabiri nuburyo bukuru, kandi igipimo cyigihombo gikomeza hafi 5%.Uburyo bwo gukina ni ugushonga cyane cyane ibikoresho bya silikoni muburyo bwambere, hanyuma ukabijugunya mubindi bikoresho bishyushye kugirango bikonje.Mugucunga igipimo cyo gukonjesha, ingunguru ya polycrystalline silicon iterwa nubuhanga bukomeye bwo gukomera.Uburyo bushyushye bwo gushonga muburyo butaziguye bwo gushonga nuburyo bumwe bwo gukina, aho polysilicon yashonga muburyo bwambere, ariko intambwe yo gukonja itandukanye nuburyo bwo gukina.Nubwo ubwo buryo bwombi busa cyane muri kamere, uburyo bwo gushonga butaziguye bukenera gusa ikintu kimwe cyingenzi, kandi ibicuruzwa bya polysilicon byakozwe bifite ireme ryiza, bifasha gukura kwimbuto za polycrystalline silicon ifite icyerekezo cyiza, kandi inzira yo gukura iroroshye kuri mu buryo bwikora, bushobora gukora imyanya yimbere ya kristu Ikosa rigabanuka.Kugeza ubu, ibigo byambere mu nganda zikoresha ingufu zituruka ku mirasire y'izuba muri rusange bifashisha uburyo bwo gushonga mu buryo butaziguye mu gukora ingunguru ya silicon polycrystalline, kandi ibirimo karubone na ogisijeni biri hasi cyane, bigenzurwa munsi ya 10ppma na 16ppma.Mu bihe biri imbere, umusaruro wa polycrystalline silicon ingots uzakomeza kwiganza uburyo bwo gushonga butaziguye, kandi igihombo kizaguma hafi 5% mugihe cyimyaka itanu.
Umusaruro winkoni ya silicon monocrystalline ushingiye ahanini kuburyo bwa Czochralski, hiyongeraho uburyo bwo gushonga bwahagaritse guhagarikwa, kandi ibicuruzwa byakozwe nabombi bifite imikoreshereze itandukanye.Uburyo bwa Czochralski bukoresha grafite irwanya ubushyuhe bwa silikoni ya polycrystalline muri quartz ifite isuku nini cyane muri sisitemu yumuriro wa tewolojiya igororotse kugirango uyishonge, hanyuma ushyiremo kristu yimbuto hejuru yumushonga kugirango uhuze, hanyuma uzenguruke kristu yimbuto mugihe uhinduranya ingirakamaro., imbuto ya kirisiti yazamuye buhoro buhoro hejuru, kandi silikoni ya monocrystalline iboneka binyuze muburyo bwo gutera imbuto, kwongera imbaraga, guhinduranya ibitugu, gukura kwa diameter ingana, no kurangiza.Uburyo bwa vertical floating zone yo gushonga bivuga gukosora inkingi-yuzuye-polycrystalline yibikoresho mu cyumba cy itanura, kwimura igiceri cyicyuma gahoro gahoro ugana icyerekezo cya polycrystalline no kunyura kumurongo wa polycrystalline, no guca kuri radiyo ifite ingufu nyinshi mumashanyarazi. coil kugirango ikore Igice cyimbere cyinkingi ya polycrystalline coil irashonga, hanyuma coil imaze kwimurwa, gushonga byongeye gukora kugirango bibe kristu imwe.Bitewe nuburyo butandukanye bwo gukora, hariho itandukaniro mubikoresho byumusaruro, ibiciro byumusaruro nubwiza bwibicuruzwa.Kugeza ubu, ibicuruzwa byabonetse muburyo bwo gushonga zone bifite isuku nyinshi kandi birashobora gukoreshwa mugukora ibikoresho bya semiconductor, mugihe uburyo bwa Czochralski bushobora kuzuza ibisabwa kugirango habeho silikoni imwe ya kirisiti ya selile ifotora kandi ifite igiciro gito, bityo rero uburyo nyamukuru.Muri 2021, umugabane wisoko ryuburyo bukurura ni hafi 85%, kandi biteganijwe ko uziyongera gato mumyaka mike iri imbere.Umugabane w’isoko muri 2025 na 2030 uteganijwe kuba 87% na 90%.Kubijyanye no gushonga uturere tumwe na tumwe twa kirisiti ya kirisiti, inganda yibumbiye mu turere dushonga silikoni imwe ya kirisiti ni ndende ku isi.kugura), TOPSIL (Danemarke).Mugihe kizaza, ibisohoka igipimo cya elegitoronike imwe ya kirisiti ya silicon ntiziyongera cyane.Impamvu nuko ikoranabuhanga rifitanye isano nu Bushinwa risubira inyuma ugereranije n’Ubuyapani n’Ubudage, cyane cyane ubushobozi bw’ibikoresho byo gushyushya ibintu byinshi hamwe n’ibikorwa byo gutegera.Tekinoroji ya silicon imwe ihuriweho na kirisiti mu gice kinini cya diameter isaba inganda zUbushinwa gukomeza gushakisha ubwazo.
Uburyo bwa Czochralski burashobora kugabanywa muburyo bwa tekinoroji yo gukurura kristu (CCZ) hamwe nubuhanga bwo gukurura kristu (RCZ).Kugeza ubu, uburyo nyamukuru mu nganda ni RCZ, iri mu cyiciro cyinzibacyuho kuva RCZ yerekeza kuri CCZ.Intambwe imwe yo gukurura no kugaburira intambwe ya RZC irigenga.Mbere yo gukurura, ingoti imwe ya kirisiti igomba gukonjeshwa no gukurwa mucyumba cy irembo, mugihe CCZ ishobora kumenya kugaburira no gushonga mugihe gikurura.RCZ irakuze, kandi harahari umwanya muto wo kuzamura ikoranabuhanga mugihe kizaza;mugihe CCZ ifite ibyiza byo kugabanya ibiciro no kuzamura imikorere, kandi iri murwego rwiterambere ryihuse.Kubijyanye nigiciro, ugereranije na RCZ, bifata amasaha agera kuri 8 mbere yuko inkoni imwe ishushanywa, CCZ irashobora kuzamura cyane umusaruro, kugabanya ibiciro byingenzi nogukoresha ingufu mukuraho iyi ntambwe.Igiteranyo rusange cy'itanura gisohoka kirenze 20% kurenza icya RCZ.Igiciro cy'umusaruro kiri munsi ya 10% ugereranije na RCZ.Kubijyanye no gukora neza, CCZ irashobora kurangiza gushushanya inkoni 8-10 imwe ya kirisiti ya silikoni imwe mugihe cyubuzima bwingenzi (amasaha 250), mugihe RCZ ishobora kuzuza hafi 4 gusa, kandi umusaruro ushobora kwiyongera 100-150% .Ku bijyanye n’ubuziranenge, CCZ ifite imbaraga nyinshi zo kurwanya, umwuka wa ogisijeni muke, no kwegeranya buhoro buhoro umwanda w’ibyuma, bityo rero birakwiriye cyane ko hategurwa n-ubwoko bumwe bwa kirisiti ya silicon wafer, nayo iri mugihe cyiterambere ryihuse.Kugeza ubu, amasosiyete amwe n'amwe yo mu Bushinwa yatangaje ko afite ikoranabuhanga rya CCZ, kandi inzira ya silicon silicon-CCZ-n yo mu bwoko bwa monocrystalline silicon wafer yasobanutse neza, ndetse yatangiye no gukoresha ibikoresho bya silikoni 100%..Mugihe kizaza, CCZ izasimbuza ahanini RCZ, ariko bizatwara inzira runaka.
Igikorwa cyo gukora wafer ya monocrystalline silicon igabanijwemo intambwe enye: gukurura, gukata, gukata, gusukura no gutondeka.Kugaragara k'uburyo bwo gukata insinga ya diyama byagabanije cyane igipimo cyo gutakaza.Gukurura kristu byasobanuwe haruguru.Igikorwa cyo gukata kirimo guhagarika, guswera, no gukora chamfering.Gukata ni ugukoresha imashini ikata kugirango ugabanye inkingi ya silicon muri wafer ya silicon.Isuku no gutondeka nintambwe zanyuma mubikorwa bya silicon wafers.Uburyo bwo gukata insinga ya diyama bufite inyungu zigaragara kurenza uburyo bwa gakondo bwo gutema insinga za minisiteri, bigaragarira cyane cyane mugihe gito cyo gukoresha no gutakaza bike.Umuvuduko winsinga ya diyama wikubye inshuro eshanu zo gukata gakondo.Kurugero, mugukata wafer imwe, gukata insinga gakondo ya minisiteri bifata amasaha agera kuri 10, naho gukata insinga ya diyama bifata amasaha agera kuri 2 gusa.Igihombo cyo guca insinga za diyama nacyo ni gito, kandi ibyangiritse byatewe no guca insinga ya diyama ni bito ugereranije no guca insinga za minisiteri, bifasha guca wafer ya silicon yoroheje.Mu myaka yashize, mu rwego rwo kugabanya igihombo n’igiciro cy’umusaruro, ibigo byahinduye uburyo bwo guca insinga za diyama, kandi diameter ya bisi ya bisi ya diyama iragenda igabanuka.Muri 2021, umurambararo wa bisi ya diamant uzaba 43-56 mm, naho diameter ya bisi ya bisi ya diamant ikoreshwa muri wafer ya monocrystalline silicon izagabanuka cyane kandi ikomeze kugabanuka.Bigereranijwe ko mu 2025 na 2030, umurambararo wa bisi ya diyama ya diyama ikoreshwa mu guca waferi ya silikoni ya monocrystalline izaba ifite metero 36 na mm 33, naho umurambararo wa bisi ya diyama ikoreshwa mu guca amashanyarazi ya silikoni ya silikoni. na 51 mkm.Ibi ni ukubera ko hari inenge nyinshi n’umwanda muri waferi ya polycrystalline silicon, kandi insinga zoroshye zikunda kumeneka.Kubwibyo, umurambararo wa bisi ya diyama ya bisi ikoreshwa mugukata wafer ya polycrystalline silicon wafer nini kuruta iy'umubyimba wa silikoni wa monocrystalline, kandi uko umugabane w isoko wa waferi ya polycrystalline wagabanutse buhoro buhoro, ukoreshwa kuri silikoni ya polyikristal Kugabanuka kwa diameter ya diyama insinga za bisi zaciwe nibice byagabanutse.
Kugeza ubu, wafer ya silicon igabanijwemo ubwoko bubiri: wafer ya polycrystalline silicon na wafer ya monocrystalline.Monocrystalline silicon wafers ifite ibyiza byo kuramba kumurimo muremure no gukora neza amashanyarazi.Polycrystalline silicon wafers igizwe nintete za kirisiti zifite icyerekezo cyindege zitandukanye, mugihe wafer imwe ya kirisiti ya silicon ikozwe muri silikoni ya polyikristaline nkibikoresho fatizo kandi ifite icyerekezo kimwe cyindege.Mubigaragara, wafer ya polycrystalline silikoni na wafer imwe ya kirisiti ya silicon ni ubururu-umukara n'umukara-umukara.Kubera ko byombi byaciwe muri polycrystalline silicon ingots hamwe na silikoni ya monocrystalline, kimwe, imiterere ni kare na kwasi-kare.Ubuzima bwa serivisi ya polycrystalline silicon wafer na monocrystalline silicon wafers ni imyaka 20.Niba uburyo bwo gupakira no gukoresha ibidukikije bikwiye, ubuzima bwa serivisi burashobora kugera kumyaka irenga 25.Muri rusange, igihe cyo kubaho cya waferi ya monocrystalline ya silicon ni ndende gato ugereranije na waferi ya polycrystalline.Byongeye kandi, wafer ya monocrystalline silicon nayo ni nziza cyane muburyo bwo guhindura amafoto, kandi ubucucike bwa dislocation hamwe n’umwanda w’ibyuma ni bito cyane ugereranije n’ibikoresho bya silikoni ya silikoni.Ingaruka ihuriweho nibintu bitandukanye itwara ubwinshi bwabatwara ubuzima bwa kristu imwe yikubye inshuro icumi kurenza iya silikeri ya silikoni.Gutyo, herekana ibyiza byo guhindura imikorere.Muri 2021, uburyo bwiza bwo guhindura imikorere ya silikoni ya silikoni ya polyikristalline izaba hafi 21%, naho iya wafer ya silicon monocrystalline izagera kuri 24.2%.
Usibye kuramba no gukora neza cyane, wafer ya monocrystalline silicon wafers nayo ifite ibyiza byo kunanuka, ifasha kugabanya ikoreshwa rya silikoni hamwe nigiciro cya wafer ya silicon, ariko witondere kwiyongera kw'igipimo cyo gucikamo ibice.Kunanuka kwa wafer ya silicon bifasha kugabanya ibiciro byinganda, kandi uburyo bwo gutema burimo burashobora guhaza byimazeyo ibikenerwa kunanuka, ariko ubunini bwa waferi ya silicon bugomba kandi guhura nibikenerwa ningirabuzimafatizo zo hasi no gukora ibice.Muri rusange, umubyimba wa wafer wa silicon wagabanutse mu myaka yashize, kandi umubyimba wa silikoni ya silikoni nini nini cyane ugereranije n’ubwa wa silikoni ya monocrystalline.Monocrystalline silicon wafers yongeye kugabanywamo n-ubwoko bwa silicon wafers na p-silicon wafers, mugihe n-ubwoko bwa silicon wafer harimo ahanini gukoresha Bateri ya TOPCon no gukoresha bateri ya HJT.Muri 2021, impuzandengo yuburebure bwa polikristaline silicon wafer ni 178 mm, kandi kubura ibisabwa mugihe kizaza bizabatera gukomeza kunanuka.Kubwibyo, hateganijwe ko umubyimba uzagabanuka gato kuva 2022 kugeza 2024, naho umubyimba uzaguma kuri 170 mm nyuma ya 2025;impuzandengo yubunini bwa p-ubwoko bwa monocrystalline silicon wafers igera kuri 170 mm, kandi biteganijwe ko izamanuka ikagera kuri 155 mm na 140 mm muri 2025 na 2030. Mu bwoko bwa n-monocrystalline silicon wafers, ubunini bwa wafer ya silicon ikoreshwa kuri selile HJT ni hafi 150μm, nuburinganire buringaniye bwa n-ubwoko bwa silicon wafers ikoreshwa muri selile TOPCon ni 165μm.135 mm.
Byongeye kandi, umusaruro wa waferi ya polycrystalline ya silicon ukoresha silikoni nyinshi kuruta waferi ya silikoni ya monocrystalline, ariko intambwe yo kubyara iroroshye cyane, izana inyungu yibiciro kuri waferi ya polycristaline.Silicon polycrystalline, nkibikoresho bisanzwe biboneka kuri waferi ya polycrystalline silicon na wafer ya monocrystalline silicon, ifite imikoreshereze itandukanye mugukora byombi, ibyo bikaba biterwa no gutandukanya ubuziranenge nintambwe zibyakozwe byombi.Muri 2021, silikoni ikoreshwa na polycrystalline ingot ni 1,10 kg / kg.Biteganijwe ko ishoramari rito mubushakashatsi niterambere rizatera impinduka nto mugihe kizaza.Silicon ikoresha inkoni ikurura ni 1.066 kg / kg, kandi hariho icyumba runaka cyo gukora neza.Biteganijwe ko izaba 1.05 kg / kg na 1.043 kg / kg muri 2025 na 2030.Muburyo bumwe bwo gukurura kristu, kugabanya ikoreshwa rya silikoni yinkoni ikurura birashobora kugerwaho mugabanya igihombo cyogusukura no kumenagura, kugenzura neza ibidukikije byakozwe, kugabanya igipimo cya primers, kunoza igenzura neza, no guhitamo ibyiciro no gutunganya tekinoroji yibikoresho bya silicon yangiritse.Nubwo gukoresha silikoni ikoreshwa na waferi ya polycrystalline ya silicon ari myinshi, igiciro cyumusaruro wa waferi ya polycrystalline silicon ni mwinshi cyane kuko ingunguru ya silikoni ya silikoni ikorwa nimbuto zishushe zishyushye, mugihe ingunguru ya silikoni ya monocrystalline ikorwa no gukura gahoro mu ziko rya Czochralski. ikoresha imbaraga zingana.Hasi.Mu 2021, impuzandengo y’umusaruro wa waferi ya silikoni ya monocrystalline izaba hafi 0,673 yu / W, naho iya silikoni ya polyikristalline izaba 0,66 yuan / W.
Mugihe umubyimba wa wafer wa silicon wagabanutse kandi diameter ya bisi ya kabili ya diyama igabanuka, umusaruro wibiti bya silicon / ingots zingana na diameter ingana kuri kilo uziyongera, kandi umubare winkoni imwe ya kirisiti ya silikoni ifite uburemere bumwe uzaba mwinshi kurenza iyo ya polycrystalline silicon ingots.Kubijyanye nimbaraga, imbaraga zikoreshwa na buri silicon wafer ziratandukana ukurikije ubwoko nubunini.Muri 2021, ibisohoka p-ubwoko bwa 166mm yubunini bwa monocrystalline kare ni ibice 64 kuri kilo, naho umusaruro wa polycrystalline kare ni ibice 59.Muri p-ubwoko bumwe bwa kirisiti ya silicon wafers, ibisohoka bingana na 158.75mm ya monocrystalline inkoni ya kare ni ibice 70 kuri kilo, ibisohoka p-ubwoko bwa 182mm ubunini bwa kristu ya kare ni ibice 53 kuri kilo, nibisohoka p -ubwoko bwa 210mm ingano imwe ya kristu ya kristu kuri kilo ni ibice 53.Ibisohoka bya kare kare ni ibice 40.Kuva mu 2022 kugeza 2030, guhora kunanuka kwa wafer ya silicon nta gushidikanya ko bizatera ubwiyongere bwumubare winkoni ya silicon / ingots zingana.Diameter ntoya ya bisi ya diyama nubunini buringaniye nayo izafasha kugabanya igihombo, bityo umubare wa waferi wakozwe.ingano.Bigereranijwe ko muri 2025 na 2030, umusaruro wa p-166mm yubunini bwa monocrystalline inkoni zingana ni ibice 71 na 78 kuri kilo, naho umusaruro wa polycrystalline winjiza ni ibice 62 na 62, ibyo bikaba biterwa nisoko rito umugabane wa polycrystalline silicon wafers Biragoye gutera iterambere ryikoranabuhanga.Hariho itandukaniro mumbaraga zubwoko butandukanye nubunini bwa silicon wafers.Dukurikije amakuru yatangajwe ku kigereranyo cya 158.75mm ya silicon wafer ni hafi 5.8W / igice, impuzandengo ya 166mm yubunini bwa silicon wafer ni 6.25W / igice, naho impuzandengo ya 182mm ya silicon wafer ni 6.25W / igice .Impuzandengo yubunini bwa silicon wafer ingana na 7.49W / igice, naho impuzandengo ya 210mm yubunini bwa silicon wafer ni 10W / igice.
Mu myaka yashize, wafer ya silicon yagiye itera imbere buhoro buhoro mu cyerekezo kinini, kandi ubunini bunini bufasha kongera imbaraga za chip imwe, bityo bikagabanya ibiciro bitari silikoni ya selile.Nyamara, ingano yoguhindura wafer ya silicon nayo igomba gutekereza hejuru no hepfo ihuza hamwe nibisanzwe, cyane cyane umutwaro nibibazo biri hejuru.Kugeza ubu, ku isoko hari ingando ebyiri zerekeranye nicyerekezo cyiterambere kizaza cyubunini bwa silicon wafer, ni 182mm nubunini bwa 210mm.Icyifuzo cya 182mm gituruka cyane cyane muburyo bwo guhuza inganda zihagaritse, hashingiwe ku gusuzuma ishyirwaho nogutwara ingirabuzimafatizo zifotora, imbaraga nubushobozi bwa module, hamwe nubufatanye hagati yimbere no hepfo;mugihe 210mm ahanini ituruka kubiciro byumusaruro nigiciro cya sisitemu.Umusaruro wa waferi ya silicon 210mm wiyongereyeho hejuru ya 15% mugikorwa cyo gushushanya inkoni imwe y’itanura, igiciro cya batiri yo hepfo yagabanutseho hafi 0,02 Yuan / W, kandi amafaranga yose yo kubaka sitasiyo y’amashanyarazi yagabanutseho hafi 0.1 yuan / W.Mu myaka mike iri imbere, biteganijwe ko wafer ya silicon ifite ubunini buri munsi ya 166mm izavaho buhoro buhoro;ibibazo byo hejuru no kumanuka bihuye nibibazo bya 210mm bya silicon wafers bizakemuka buhoro buhoro, kandi ikiguzi kizaba ikintu cyingenzi kigira ingaruka kumushoramari numusaruro wibigo.Kubwibyo, umugabane wisoko rya 210mm wa silicon wafers uziyongera.Kuzamuka gushikamye;182mm ya silicon wafer izahinduka ubunini bwisoko ku isoko bitewe ninyungu zayo mu musaruro uhujwe, ariko hamwe niterambere ryiterambere rya 210mm ya silicon wafer ikoreshwa, 182mm izabiha inzira.Byongeye kandi, biragoye ko wafer nini nini ya silicon ikoreshwa cyane ku isoko mu myaka mike iri imbere, kubera ko amafaranga y’umurimo hamwe n’ibyago byo kwishyiriraho bya binini bya silicon nini biziyongera cyane, bikaba bigoye guhanagurwa na kuzigama mubiciro byumusaruro nigiciro cya sisitemu..Muri 2021, ubunini bwa silicon wafer ku isoko burimo 156.75mm, 157mm, 158,75mm, 166mm, 182mm, 210mm, n'ibindi. Muri byo, ubunini bwa 158.75mm na 166mm bwagize 50% byose hamwe, n'ubunini bwa 156.75mm yagabanutse kugera kuri 5%, izasimburwa buhoro buhoro ejo hazaza;166mm nigisubizo kinini kinini gishobora kuzamurwa kumurongo uhari wa batiri isanzwe, izaba nini nini mumyaka ibiri ishize.Ku bijyanye nubunini bwinzibacyuho, biteganijwe ko umugabane w isoko uzaba munsi ya 2% muri 2030;ubunini bwa 182mm na 210mm buzaba 45% muri 2021, kandi umugabane w isoko uziyongera vuba mugihe kizaza.Biteganijwe ko imigabane yose yisoko muri 2030 izarenga 98%.
Mu myaka yashize, umugabane w isoko rya silikoni ya monocrystalline wakomeje kwiyongera, kandi ufata umwanya wambere mwisoko.Kuva mu 2012 kugeza 2021, igipimo cya silicon monocrystalline cyazamutse kiva kuri 20% kigera kuri 93.3%, kwiyongera cyane.Muri 2018, wafer ya silicon ku isoko ahanini ni wafer ya polycrystalline silicon, bingana na 50%.Impamvu nyamukuru nuko ibyiza bya tekiniki ya monocrystalline silicon wafers idashobora kwishyura ibibi.Kuva mu mwaka wa 2019, kubera ko ifoto y’amashanyarazi ya silicon ya monocrystalline ya silicon yarenze cyane iy'umubyimba wa silikoni ya silikoni, kandi igiciro cy’umusaruro wa waferi ya silikoni ya monocrystalline cyakomeje kugabanuka n’iterambere ry’ikoranabuhanga, umugabane w’isoko wa wafer wa monocrystalline wa silicon wakomeje kwiyongera, uba isoko. inzira nyamukuru ku isoko.ibicuruzwa.Biteganijwe ko igipimo cya waferi ya silikoni ya monocrystalline kizagera kuri 96% mu 2025, naho umugabane w’isoko rya waferi ya silikoni ya monocrystalline uzagera kuri 97.7% muri 2030. (Raporo yatanzwe: Future Think Tank)
1.3.Batteri: Bateri ya PERC yiganje ku isoko, kandi iterambere rya bateri n-itera kuzamura ibicuruzwa
Hagati yo guhuza inganda zinganda zifotora zirimo selile zifotora hamwe na moderi ya selile.Gutunganya wafer ya silicon muri selile nintambwe yingenzi mugutahura ifoto yamashanyarazi.Bifata intambwe zigera kuri zirindwi kugirango utunganyirize selile isanzwe kuva wafer ya silicon.Ubwa mbere, shyira wafer wa silicon muri acide hydrofluoric kugirango ubyare piramide imeze nka suede hejuru yayo, bityo bigabanye urumuri rwizuba kandi byongere urumuri;icya kabiri ni Fosifore ikwirakwizwa hejuru yuruhande rumwe rwa silicon wafer kugirango ihuze PN, kandi ubuziranenge bwayo bugira ingaruka kumikorere ya selile;icya gatatu ni ugukuraho ihuriro rya PN ryakozwe kuruhande rwa silicon wafer mugihe cyo gukwirakwiza kugirango wirinde inzira ngufi ya selile;Igice cya firime ya silicon nitride itwikiriwe kuruhande aho ihuriro rya PN ryakozwe kugirango bigabanye urumuri kandi icyarimwe byongere imikorere;icya gatanu ni ugucapa ibyuma bya electrode imbere n'inyuma ya wafer ya silicon kugirango ikusanyirize hamwe abatwara mato yakozwe na fotokopi;Umuzunguruko wacapwe murwego rwo gucapa uracumura kandi urakorwa, kandi uhujwe na silicon wafer, ni ukuvuga selile;amaherezo, selile zifite imikorere itandukanye zashyizwe mubikorwa.
Crystalline silicon selile ikorwa hamwe na wafer ya silicon nka substrate, kandi irashobora kugabanywamo selile p-selile na n-selile ukurikije ubwoko bwa silicon wafers.Muri byo, n-selile ifite imikorere ihindagurika kandi igenda isimbuza buhoro buhoro p-selile mumyaka yashize.Ubwoko bwa P-silicon wafers ikorwa na doping silicon hamwe na boron, naho n-ubwoko bwa silicon wafer ikozwe muri fosifore.Kubwibyo, kwibumbira mubintu bya boron muri n-ubwoko bwa silicon wafer biri hasi, bityo bikabuza guhuza uruganda rwa boron-ogisijeni, kuzamura ubuzima bwabatwara ubuzima bwabo bwose bwibikoresho bya silikoni, kandi mugihe kimwe, nta foto iterwa no gufotora muri bateri.Mubyongeyeho, n-ubwoko bwabatwara n-moko ni ibyobo, p-ubwoko bwabatwara p ni electron, kandi umutego wambukiranya igice cya atome zanduye kumyobo ni nto ugereranije na electron.Kubwibyo, abatwara ubwinshi bwubuzima bwa n-selile ni ndende kandi igipimo cyo guhinduranya amafoto kiri hejuru.Dukurikije imibare ya laboratoire, urugero rwo hejuru rwo guhindura imikorere ya p-selile ni 24.5%, naho imikorere yo guhindura ingirabuzimafatizo ya n igera kuri 28.7%, bityo selile n-bwoko zerekana icyerekezo cyiterambere cyikoranabuhanga rizaza.Muri 2021, selile n-selile (cyane cyane harimo selile ya heterojunction na selile TOPCon) ifite igiciro kinini ugereranije, kandi igipimo cyumusaruro rusange kiracyari gito.Umugabane w'isoko uriho ubu ugera kuri 3%, usanga ahanini ari kimwe no muri 2020.
Muri 2021, imikorere yo guhindura selile n-selile izanozwa cyane, kandi biteganijwe ko hazaba umwanya munini witerambere ryikoranabuhanga mumyaka itanu iri imbere.Muri 2021, umusaruro munini w'ingirabuzimafatizo ya p-monocrystalline uzakoresha ikoranabuhanga rya PERC, kandi impuzandengo yo guhindura ibintu izagera kuri 23.1%, izamuka ry'amanota 0.3 ku ijana ugereranije na 2020;imikorere ihindagurika ya polycrystalline yumukara wa silicon yumukara ukoresheje tekinoroji ya PERC izagera kuri 21.0%, ugereranije na 2020. Kwiyongera kwumwaka amanota 0.2;isanzwe ya polycrystalline yumukara wa silicon selile kunoza imikorere ntabwo ikomeye, imikorere yo guhindura mumwaka wa 2021 izaba hafi 19.5%, hejuru ya 0.1 ku ijana gusa hejuru, kandi umwanya uzaza kunoza imikorere ni muto;impuzandengo yo guhindura imikorere ya ingot monocrystalline selile PERC ni 22.4%, ni ukuvuga 0,7 ku ijana munsi ugereranije na selile PERC ya monocrystalline;impuzandengo yo guhindura imikorere ya n-selile ya TOPCon igera kuri 24%, naho impuzandengo yo guhindura ingirabuzimafatizo ya heterojunction igera kuri 24.2%, byombi byateye imbere cyane ugereranije na 2020, naho impuzandengo yo guhindura imikorere ya selile IBC igera kuri 24.2%.Hamwe niterambere ryikoranabuhanga mugihe kizaza, tekinoroji ya batiri nka TBC na HBC nayo irashobora gukomeza gutera imbere.Mu bihe biri imbere, hamwe no kugabanya ibiciro byumusaruro no kuzamura umusaruro, bateri n-ubwoko nimwe mubyerekezo byingenzi byiterambere byikoranabuhanga rya batiri.
Urebye inzira ya tekinoroji ya batiri, ivugurura ryikoranabuhanga rya batiri ryanyuze muri BSF, PERC, TOPCon rishingiye ku iterambere rya PERC, na HJT, ikoranabuhanga rishya rihindura PERC;TOPCon irashobora guhuzwa hamwe na IBC kugirango ikore TBC, kandi HJT irashobora kandi guhuzwa na IBC kugirango ibe HBC.P-selile ya monocrystalline ikoresha cyane cyane tekinoroji ya PERC, selile p-polycrystalline selile zirimo polycrystalline black silicon selile na ingot monocrystalline, iyanyuma ivuga kongeramo kristu yimbuto ya monocrystalline hashingiwe kubikorwa bisanzwe bya polycrystalline, gukomera kwicyerekezo Nyuma yibyo, a kare ya silicon ingot irashingwa, hamwe na silicon wafer ivanze na kristu imwe na polycrystalline ikorwa binyuze murwego rwo gutunganya.Kuberako ikoresha cyane inzira yo gutegura polycrystalline, ishyirwa mubyiciro byubwoko bwa p-polycrystalline.Ingirabuzimafatizo n-ubwoko zirimo TOPCon monocrystalline selile, HJT monocrystalline selile na IBC monocrystalline.Muri 2021, imirongo mishya itanga umusaruro uzakomeza kwiganjemo imirongo y’umusemburo wa PERC, kandi umugabane w’isoko rya selile PERC uzakomeza kwiyongera kugera kuri 91.2%.Nkuko ibicuruzwa bikenerwa hanze no mumishinga yo murugo byibanze kubicuruzwa bikora neza, umugabane wamasoko ya bateri ya BSF uzamanuka uva kuri 8.8% ujye kuri 5% muri 2021.
1.4.Module: Igiciro cya selile kibara igice cyingenzi, kandi imbaraga za module biterwa na selile
Intambwe yo gukora ya moderi ya fotovoltaque ikubiyemo cyane cyane guhuza imiyoboro ya selile na lamination, kandi selile zibara igice kinini cyikiguzi cyose cyamasomo.Kubera ko ikigezweho na voltage ya selile imwe ari nto cyane, selile zigomba guhuzwa binyuze mumabari ya bisi.Hano, bahujwe murukurikirane kugirango bongere ingufu za voltage, hanyuma bahuze murwego rwo kubona amashanyarazi menshi, hanyuma ikirahure cya Photovoltaque, EVA cyangwa POE, urupapuro rwa batiri, EVA cyangwa POE, urupapuro rwinyuma rufunze kandi ubushyuhe bukanda muburyo runaka , hanyuma amaherezo arinzwe na aluminiyumu na silicone yo gufunga impande.Urebye ibiciro byumusaruro wibigize, ibiciro byibikoresho bingana na 75%, bifata umwanya wingenzi, bikurikirwa nigiciro cyinganda, ikiguzi cyimikorere nigiciro cyakazi.Igiciro cyibikoresho kiyobowe nigiciro cya selile.Nkuko byatangajwe n’amasosiyete menshi, selile zigera kuri 2/3 byikiguzi cyose cya moderi yifotora.
Module ya Photovoltaque isanzwe igabanywa ukurikije ubwoko bwakagari, ingano, nubunini.Hariho itandukaniro mumbaraga za module zitandukanye, ariko zose ziri murwego rwo kuzamuka.Imbaraga nicyerekezo cyingenzi cyerekana amafoto yerekana amashanyarazi, byerekana ubushobozi bwa module bwo guhindura ingufu zizuba mumashanyarazi.Birashobora kugaragara uhereye kumibare yimbaraga zubwoko butandukanye bwamafoto yerekana ko iyo ingano numubare wingirabuzimafatizo muri module ari bimwe, imbaraga za module ni n-ubwoko bumwe bwa kristu> p-ubwoko bumwe bwa kristu> polycrystalline;Nini ingano nubunini, niko imbaraga za module nini;kuri TOPCon imwe ya kristu module hamwe na heterojunction module yuburyo bumwe, imbaraga zanyuma ziruta izambere.Nkuko CPIA ibiteganya, ingufu za module ziziyongera 5-10W kumwaka mumyaka mike iri imbere.Mubyongeyeho, gupakira module bizana igihombo runaka, cyane cyane gutakaza optique no gutakaza amashanyarazi.Iyambere iterwa no guhererekanya no kudahuza ibikoresho byo gupakira nk'ikirahure cya Photovoltaque na EVA, naho ibyanyuma bivuga cyane cyane gukoresha imirasire y'izuba mukurikirane.Igihombo cyumuzunguruko cyatewe no guhangana na lente yo gusudira hamwe na bisi ya bisi ubwayo, hamwe nigihombo kidahuye cyatewe no guhuza guhuza ingirabuzimafatizo, gutakaza ingufu zose zibiri zingana na 8%.
1.5.Ubushobozi bwa Photovoltaque bwashyizweho: Politiki yibihugu bitandukanye biragaragara ko itwarwa, kandi hari umwanya munini kubushobozi bushya bwashyizweho mugihe kizaza
Isi ahanini yageze ku bwumvikane ku byuka bya zeru biturutse ku ntego yo kurengera ibidukikije, kandi ubukungu bw’imishinga ifotora cyane bwagiye bugaragara buhoro buhoro.Ibihugu birimo gushakisha byimazeyo iterambere ry’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu.Mu myaka yashize, ibihugu byo ku isi byiyemeje kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere.Ibyinshi mu byuka bihumanya ikirere byashyizeho intego zijyanye n’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu, kandi ubushobozi bwashyizweho n’ingufu zishobora kuba nini.Hashingiwe ku ntego ya 1.5 control yo kugenzura ubushyuhe, IRENA iteganya ko ingufu z’amashanyarazi zishobora gushyirwaho ku isi zizagera kuri 10.8TW mu 2030. Byongeye kandi, dukurikije imibare ya WOODMac, igiciro cy’amashanyarazi (LCOE) cy’amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba mu Bushinwa, mu Buhinde, Amerika ndetse n’ibindi bihugu bimaze kuba munsi y’ingufu zidahenze cyane, kandi bizakomeza kugabanuka mu bihe biri imbere.Guteza imbere politiki mu bihugu bitandukanye ndetse n’ubukungu bw’amashanyarazi y’amashanyarazi byatumye ubwiyongere bukabije bw’ubushobozi bw’amashanyarazi bwifotora ku isi no mu Bushinwa mu myaka yashize.Kuva mu mwaka wa 2012 kugeza 2021, ubushobozi bwo kwishyiriraho ingufu za Photovoltaque ku isi buziyongera buva kuri 104.3GW bugere kuri 849.5GW, naho ubushobozi bwo gushyiramo amashanyarazi bukoreshwa mu Bushinwa buziyongera buve kuri 6.7GW bugere kuri 307GW, bwiyongere inshuro zirenga 44.Byongeye kandi, Ubushinwa bumaze gushyirwaho amashanyarazi yerekana amashanyarazi arenga 20% yubushobozi bwisi yose yashyizweho.Mu 2021, Ubushinwa bumaze gushyirwaho amashanyarazi y’amashanyarazi ni 53GW, bingana na 40% by’ubushobozi bushya ku isi.Ibi ahanini biterwa no gukwirakwiza kwinshi kandi guhuza umutungo w’ingufu zoroheje mu Bushinwa, iterambere ryateye imbere no mu majyepfo, hamwe n’inkunga ikomeye ya politiki y’igihugu.Muri iki gihe, Ubushinwa bwagize uruhare runini mu kubyara ingufu z'amashanyarazi, kandi ubushobozi bwo gushyira hamwe bugera kuri 6.5%.yasimbutse kuri 36.14%.
Hashingiwe ku isesengura ryavuzwe haruguru, CPIA yatanze iteganyagihe ryiyongera ry’amashanyarazi mashya kuva 2022 kugeza 2030 kwisi yose.Biteganijwe ko mu bihe byombi kandi byizerwa, ubushobozi bushya ku isi mu 2030 buzaba 366 na 315GW, naho Ubushinwa bushya bukaba 128., 105GW.Hasi aha tuzahanura ibisabwa kuri polysilicon dukurikije igipimo cyubushobozi bushya buri mwaka.
1.6.Saba iteganyagihe rya polysilicon kubikorwa bifotora
Kuva mu 2022 kugeza 2030, hashingiwe ku iteganyagihe rya CPIA ku bijyanye no kongera amashanyarazi ya PV ku isi hose mu buryo bwiza kandi bushingiye ku bitekerezo, ibyifuzo bya polysilicon ku bikorwa bya PV birashobora guhanurwa.Ingirabuzimafatizo nintambwe yingenzi yo kumenya guhinduranya amashanyarazi, kandi wafer ya silicon nibikoresho fatizo byibanze byutugingo ngengabuzima hamwe na epfo na ruguru ya polysilicon, bityo rero nikintu cyingenzi muburyo bwo guhanura polysilicon.Umubare uremereye wibice kuri kilo yinkoni ya silicon hamwe nimbuto zirashobora kubarwa uhereye kumibare y'ibiro kuri kilo hamwe numugabane wisoko ryinkoni ya silicon na ingots.Noneho, ukurikije imbaraga nisoko ryisoko rya silicon wafers yubunini butandukanye, imbaraga ziremereye za wafer wa silicon zirashobora kuboneka, hanyuma umubare ukenewe wa wafer wa silicon urashobora kugereranywa ukurikije ubushobozi bushya bwa fotora.Ibikurikira, uburemere bwinkoni za silikoni zisabwa hamwe nimbuto zirashobora kuboneka ukurikije isano iri hagati yumubare wa wafer wa silicon numubare uremereye winkoni ya silicon hamwe na silicon ingots kuri kilo.Byongeye kandi hamwe na silikoni iremereye yo gukoresha inkoni ya silicon / ingunguru ya silicon, icyifuzo cya polysilicon kubushobozi bushya bwa fotokoltaque kirashobora kuboneka amaherezo.Dukurikije ibyavuye mu iteganyagihe, isi ikenera polysilicon ku bikoresho bishya bifotora mu myaka itanu ishize bizakomeza kwiyongera, bigere ku 2027, hanyuma bigabanuke gato mu myaka itatu iri imbere.Biteganijwe ko mu bihe by’icyizere no kubungabunga ibidukikije mu 2025, buri mwaka isi yose ikenera polysilicon yo gushyiramo amashanyarazi izaba toni 1,108.900 na toni 907.800, naho isi yose ikenera polysilicon yo gukoresha amashanyarazi mu 2030 izaba toni 1,042.100 mu bihe byiza kandi byizerwa. ., Toni 896.900.Nk’uko Ubushinwa bubitangazaigipimo cyubushobozi bwamafoto yisi yose yashyizweho,Ubushinwa busaba polysilicon yo gukoresha amashanyarazi mu 2025biteganijwe ko ari toni 369.600 na toni 302.600 mu bihe byiza kandi byita ku bidukikije, na toni 739.300 na toni 605.200 mu mahanga.
2, Semiconductor iherezo risabwa: Igipimo ni gito cyane ugereranije nibisabwa mumashanyarazi, kandi iterambere rizaza.
Usibye gukora selile ya Photovoltaque, polysilicon irashobora kandi gukoreshwa nkibikoresho fatizo byo gukora chip kandi ikoreshwa mu murima wa semiconductor, ishobora kugabanywa mu gukora amamodoka, ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki y’inganda, itumanaho rya elegitoroniki, ibikoresho byo mu rugo n’indi mirima.Inzira kuva polysilicon kugeza chip igabanijwemo intambwe eshatu.Ubwa mbere, polysilicon ikururwa muri monocrystalline silicon ingots, hanyuma igacibwa muri waferi yoroheje.Wafer ya silicon ikorwa binyuze murukurikirane rwo gusya, gutondagura no gusya., nicyo kintu cyibanze cyibanze cyuruganda rwa semiconductor.Hanyuma, wafer ya silicon yaciwe hanyuma laser yandikwa muburyo butandukanye bwumuzunguruko kugirango ikore ibicuruzwa bya chip nibiranga bimwe.Wafer isanzwe ya silicon irimo cyane cyane ya wafer isukuye, wafita epitaxial wafer na SOI wafer.Wafer isukuye ni ibikoresho bitanga chip hamwe nuburinganire buringaniye bwabonetse mugukonjesha wafer ya silicon kugirango ikureho igice cyangiritse hejuru, gishobora gukoreshwa muburyo butaziguye gukora chip, wafita epitaxial na SOI silicon wafer.Epitaxial wafers ibonwa no gukura kwa epitaxial ya wafers isukuye, mugihe SOI silicon wafer yahimbwe no guhuza cyangwa gutera ion kuri substrate ya wafer isukuye, kandi inzira yo kuyitegura iragoye.
Binyuze mu gukenera polysilicon ku ruhande rwa semiconductor mu 2021, hamwe n’uko ikigo cyateganije ko umuvuduko w’iterambere ry’inganda zikoresha amashanyarazi mu myaka mike iri imbere, icyifuzo cya polysilicon mu murima wa semiconductor kuva 2022 kugeza 2025 gishobora kugereranywa.Mu 2021, umusaruro wa elegitoroniki yo mu rwego rwa elegitoroniki ku isi uzaba hafi 6% y’umusaruro wose wa polysilicon, naho polysilicon yo mu rwego rwizuba hamwe na silicon granular izagera kuri 94%.Ibyinshi bya elegitoroniki yo mu rwego rwa elegitoronike ikoreshwa mu gice cya semiconductor, naho izindi polysilicon zikoreshwa cyane mu nganda zifotora..Kubwibyo, dushobora gutekereza ko ingano ya polysilicon ikoreshwa mu nganda zikoresha igice cya 2021 ni toni 37.000.Byongeye kandi, ukurikije umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’inganda uzaza mu nganda za semiconductor zahanuwe na FortuneBusiness Insights, icyifuzo cya polysilicon yo gukoresha semiconductor kiziyongera ku gipimo cya 8,6% buri mwaka kuva 2022 kugeza 2025. Biteganijwe ko mu 2025, icyifuzo cya polysilicon mumurima wa semiconductor izaba hafi toni 51.500.(Inkomoko ya Raporo: Ibitekerezo bizaza)
3, Polysilicon itumiza no kohereza hanze: ibitumizwa mu mahanga birenze kure ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, hamwe n'Ubudage na Maleziya bifite umubare munini
Mu 2021, hafi 18,63% by’Ubushinwa bukenera polysilicon bizaturuka mu mahanga, kandi ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga birenze kure ibyoherezwa mu mahanga.Kuva muri 2017 kugeza 2021, uburyo bwo gutumiza no kohereza hanze ya polysilicon yiganjemo ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga, ibyo bikaba bishobora guterwa n’icyifuzo cyo hasi cy’inganda zikomoka ku mafoto y’amashanyarazi cyateye imbere vuba mu myaka yashize, kandi icyifuzo cya polysilicon kikaba kirenga 94% bya ibisabwa byose;Byongeye kandi, isosiyete itaramenya neza ikoranabuhanga ry’umusaruro wa polyisilicon yo mu rwego rwa elegitoronike yo mu rwego rwo hejuru, bityo rero polysilicon imwe isabwa n’inganda zuzuzanya zikeneye gushingira ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga.Dukurikije imibare y’ishami ry’inganda za Silicon, ibicuruzwa byatumijwe mu mahanga byakomeje kugabanuka muri 2019 na 2020. Impamvu nyamukuru yatumye igabanuka ry’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga bya polysilicon muri 2019 ari iyongerekana rikomeye ry’ubushobozi bw’umusaruro, wavuye kuri toni 388.000 muri 2018 ugera kuri toni 452.000 muri 2019nubwo ubushobozi bw’umusaruro butigeze bwiyongera muri 2020, ingaruka z’icyorezo zatumye habaho gutinda kwubaka imishinga y’amashanyarazi, kandi umubare w’ibicuruzwa bya polysilicon wagabanutse mu gihe kimwe.Mu 2021, isoko ry’amafoto y’Ubushinwa rizatera imbere byihuse, kandi bigaragara ko ikoreshwa rya polysilicon rizagera kuri toni 613.000, bigatuma ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga byongera kwiyongera.Mu myaka itanu ishize, Ubushinwa bwinjiza ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga bingana na toni 90.000 na 140.000, muri byo hakaba toni zigera ku 103.800 mu 2021. Biteganijwe ko ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga biva mu Bushinwa bizakomeza kuba hafi toni 100.000 ku mwaka kuva 2022 kugeza 2025.
Ubushinwa butumiza mu mahanga cyane cyane buturuka mu Budage, Maleziya, Ubuyapani na Tayiwani, Ubushinwa, kandi ibicuruzwa bitumizwa muri ibyo bihugu bine bingana na 90.51% mu 2021. Hafi 45% by’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga biva mu Bushinwa biva mu Budage, 26% biva muri Maleziya, 13.5% baturutse mu Buyapani, na 6% bo muri Tayiwani.Ubudage bufite igihangange cya polysilicon ku isi WACKER, kikaba ari isoko nini ya polysilicon yo mu mahanga, bingana na 12.7% by’umusaruro rusange ku isi mu 2021;Maleziya ifite umubare munini wumurongo wa polysilicon ukomoka muri sosiyete ya OCI yo muri Koreya yepfo, ikomoka kumurongo wambere wakozwe muri Maleziya ya TOKUYAMA, isosiyete yUbuyapani yaguzwe na OCI.Hano hari inganda ninganda zimwe OCI yavuye muri Koreya yepfo yerekeza muri Maleziya.Impamvu yo kwimuka ni uko Maleziya itanga umwanya w’uruganda ku buntu kandi igiciro cy’amashanyarazi kiri munsi ya kimwe cya gatatu ugereranije na Koreya yepfo;Ubuyapani na Tayiwani, Ubushinwa bifite TOKUYAMA, GET hamwe nandi masosiyete, afite igice kinini cyumusaruro wa polysilicon.ahantu.Mu 2021, umusaruro wa polysilicon uzaba toni 492.000, ubwo ubushobozi bushya bwo gufotora bushya hamwe n’umusaruro ukomoka kuri chip bizaba toni 206.400 na toni 1.500, naho toni 284.100 zisigaye zizakoreshwa cyane cyane mu gutunganya ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga no koherezwa mu mahanga.Mumurongo wo hasi uhuza polysilicon, wafer ya silicon, selile na modules byoherezwa cyane cyane, muribyo kohereza modules bigaragara cyane.Muri 2021, miliyari 4.64 za silicon wafers na miliyari 3.2 za fotora ya selilebyoherejwe hanzebivuye mu Bushinwa, hamwe byoherezwa mu mahanga 22.6GW na 10.3GW, naho ibyoherezwa mu mahanga ni 98.5GW, hamwe n’ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga bike.Ku bijyanye n’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga, module yoherejwe mu 2021 izagera kuri miliyari 24.61 US $, bingana na 86%, ikurikirwa na wafer wa silicon na bateri.Mu 2021, umusaruro w’isi yose wa wafer wa silicon, selile yifotora, hamwe na moderi ya Photovoltaque bizagera kuri 97.3%, 85.1%, na 82.3%.Biteganijwe ko inganda zifotora ku isi zizakomeza kwibanda mu Bushinwa mu myaka itatu iri imbere, kandi umusaruro n’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa muri buri murongo bizaba ari byinshi.Kubwibyo, byagereranijwe ko kuva 2022 kugeza 2025, umubare wa polysilicon ukoreshwa mugutunganya no gutanga ibicuruzwa byo hepfo no koherezwa mumahanga uziyongera buhoro buhoro.Bigereranijwe no gukuramo umusaruro mumahanga mubisabwa polysilicon yo hanze.Muri 2025, polysilicon yakozwe mugutunganya ibicuruzwa byo hasi bizagerwaho kohereza Toni 583.000 mubihugu byamahanga bivuye mubushinwa
4, Incamake na Outlook
Isabwa rya polysilicon kwisi yose yibanda cyane kumurima wamafoto, kandi ibisabwa mumashanyarazi ya semiconductor ntabwo ari gahunda yubunini.Isabwa rya polysilicon riterwa nubushakashatsi bwamafoto, kandi buhoro buhoro bwoherezwa muri polysilicon binyuze mumihuza ya moderi ya fotokolta-selile-wafer, bikabyara ibyifuzo.Mu bihe biri imbere, hamwe no kwagura ubushobozi bw’amafoto y’amashanyarazi ku isi, ibisabwa kuri polysilicon muri rusange ni byiza.Mu buryo bwiza, Ubushinwa ndetse no mumahanga byongerewe ingufu za PV bitera gukenera polysilicon mumwaka wa 2025 bizaba 36.96GW na 73.93GW, naho ibisabwa mugihe cyibidukikije bizagera kuri 30.24GW na 60.49GW.Muri 2021, isi yose itangwa na polysilicon nibisabwa bizaba bikomeye, bigatuma ibiciro bya polysilicon biri hejuru kwisi.Iki kibazo gishobora gukomeza kugeza mu 2022, kandi gahoro gahoro gahoro gahoro gahoro gahoro nyuma ya 2023. Mu gice cya kabiri cyumwaka wa 2020, ingaruka z’icyorezo zatangiye gucika intege, kandi kwaguka kw’umusaruro wo hasi byatumye hakenerwa polysilicon, ndetse n’amasosiyete akomeye arateganya kwagura umusaruro.Nyamara, uburyo bwo kwaguka bwimyaka irenga imwe nigice byatumye irekurwa ryumusaruro mu mpera za 2021 na 2022, bituma 2021. hiyongeraho 4.24% muri 2021. Hariho icyuho cyo gutanga toni 10,000, bityo ibiciro byazamutse bikabije.Biteganijwe ko mu 2022, mu bihe byiza kandi byita ku bushobozi bw’amashanyarazi yashyizweho, icyuho cy’ibisabwa n’ibisabwa kizaba toni -156.500 na toni 2,400, kandi muri rusange ibicuruzwa bizakomeza kuba mu gihe gito.Muri 2023 na nyuma yaho, imishinga mishya yatangiye kubaka mu mpera za 2021 no mu ntangiriro za 2022 izatangira umusaruro kandi igere ku ntera yo kongera umusaruro.Isoko nibisabwa bizagenda byoroha buhoro buhoro, kandi ibiciro birashobora kuba munsi yigitutu cyo hasi.Mu gukurikirana, hakwiye kwitabwaho ingaruka z’intambara y’Uburusiya na Ukraine ku miterere y’ingufu ku isi, zishobora guhindura gahunda y’isi y’ubushobozi bushya bw’amafoto y’amashanyarazi, bizagira ingaruka ku gukenera polysilicon.
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